Research paper : Elections and the future of peace and stability in Libya
Using a logistic econometric model, this paper provided estimates for the probability of conflict recurrence in Libya if elections were held at the end of the current year. The results showed that the probability of conflict recurrence in Libya appears high in this case, reaching 71%. Postponing the elections until the end of next year will not contribute much to reducing the probability of conflict recurrence. Reducing the probability of conflict recurrence requires, according to the model’s estimates, to make changes in the nature of the Libyan political system so as to allow for broader political participation of the different political parties. These changes include, first, the transition to a decentralized system and the transfer of more powers and financial resources from the central government to local government units, it also includes replacing the proposed presidential system with a parliamentary system, and finally adopting a mixed electoral system to elect parliament, allowing political parties to effectively participate in elections.
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